In the second installment of the Pacific Playbook Sports Talk preseason predictions, I will be revealing who I believe will come out on top in the Big 12. There are plenty of exciting changes that will help the Big 12 stand out among other conferences. The Big 12 has taken a step toward becoming a trendsetter in the modernization and commercialization of college sports by expanding its partnership with Monster Energy, making the company the entitlement partner of Big 12 football and men’s and women’s basketball during the regular season. Several of the conference’s coaching mainstays are no longer on the sidelines, with long-tenured coaches departing their respective programs. With coaching and roster changes across the conference, there are teams bound to cause major shakeups in the standings throughout the year. The Big 12 has a few heavy hitters and a few bottom dwellers, but the biggest shockers could come from the teams in the middle of these predictions. This begs the question: How will the season unfold?
1. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. This program is one of the highest spenders in the conference, as they have built this roster through the transfer portal while retaining talent at key positions. The Red Raiders aggressively attacked the transfer portal to boost their defense by adding proven talent like Austin Romaine, Adam Trick and Trey White. Unfortunately for Texas Tech fans, quarterback Brendan Sorsby will not play for the Red Raiders this season, but I am excited about the returning talent they have. Will Hammond is a dual-threat quarterback who can keep defenses on edge with his ability to run the ball, and Cameron Dickey is coming off a 1,000-yard season and will be one of the biggest pieces of this offense. If these players perform and meet expectations, this will be a scary team throughout the year.
The Red Raiders have a favorable schedule this year. They benefit from not playing many heavy hitters, as the toughest games of their season are predominantly at home. Texas Tech will host Arizona, Arizona State and Houston, while they will play on the road against Oklahoma State. With these teams being their greatest tests, I have faith that they will win these games and prove why they will be the top dog in the conference.
Joey McGuire is a coach who can bring the best out of his players. Under McGuire, the Red Raiders have continued to establish themselves as a Big 12 contender, culminating in a Big 12 championship and the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance last season. I am confident that he will be able to lead them to another playoff berth, and if they are lucky, win a game or two.
2. BYU
BYU was able to retain two of its most important pieces, as head coach Kalani Sitake decided to stay put amid interest from Penn State, along with LJ Martin, who is the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. Keeping these two in Provo helps maintain a strong identity and gives the Cougars an opportunity to potentially make the College Football Playoff. With Bear Bachmeier returning for his sophomore year and defensive stalwarts Evan Johnson and Faletau Satuala back to strengthen the defense, the legitimacy of this team is clear.
There are some concerns with the receiving corps and losses on the defensive line and at linebacker. With much of last year’s production gone, transfers and returning players will have to step up in order to help the young quarterback and running game excel. If the front seven can meet expectations and the secondary can reproduce what they did last year, they are a dangerous team that can beat anyone.
The two toughest games of the year will show fans what BYU is truly capable of. The first is a matchup in Provo against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who are the AP preseason No. 4-ranked team while the Cougars are ranked No. 14. If BYU wins, they would have a huge résumé-building victory that could boost them into the playoffs without being a conference champion. The second game is the “Holy War,” a matchup on the road against Utah. Rivalries can be complicated to predict because both teams pour everything into those games, and this is no different. Winning against these teams would put the Cougars in a great spot to take the top spot in the conference and earn a playoff spot, while losing both would make their path much more difficult. We shall see what happens.
3. Utah
Coming in at No. 3 in the Big 12 preseason predictions is Utah. There will be one major difference that might take most college football fans some time to adjust to: Kyle Whittingham is no longer coaching the Utes. After stepping down following the 2025 season, Whittingham accepted the head coaching job at Michigan. Luckily for Utah fans, they made an in-house hire by promoting Morgan Scalley, which should help keep their identity and culture similar to years past. Scalley is a tough-minded defensive coach who should have his team ready to play each and every Saturday.
With a longtime coach leaving, it was bound to affect the team’s roster, and Utah was no different as they had their fair share of transfers. However, they still have a ton of talent that can potentially take them higher than this prediction. Devon Dampier is the engine that makes this team go. He scored 34 total touchdowns last season and will look to replicate that performance. I think Utah will continue to utilize an intimidating rushing attack, as they have multiple players in their backfield. One concern that I have about their roster is replacing NFL talent on the offensive line. That’s a tall task for any team.
A huge benefit for teams across the country is a strong home-field advantage, and Utah has that in spades. The Utes will host their toughest opponents, and that includes arguably their most important matchup against BYU. With the talent they have and the advantageous games at home, they could surprise people and climb higher in Scalley’s first year.
4. Houston
Houston has a great opportunity to make some serious noise this season. They are fortunate to have key players returning whose production will define their success. Starting with star quarterback Conner Weigman, who put his dual-threat skills on full display last year by putting up around 3,400 total yards and 36 total touchdowns. If he can replicate those numbers, Houston can be in for a special season. It also helps when your team’s top wide receiver, Amare Thomas, comes back to give Weigman a reliable option.
A story to follow is the reunion between Willie Fritz and Makhi Hughes. The two were together at Tulane in 2023, when Hughes had a breakout season under Fritz. Fritz then left Tulane to become Houston’s head coach, while Hughes eventually transferred to Oregon. After not playing at Oregon, Hughes decided to reunite with Fritz in Houston, giving the Cougars a running back who already knows what it is like to play in Fritz’s system. Aside from the Oregon transfer, Houston was active in pursuing quality talent through the portal and brought in several players who can make an immediate impact. Though the Cougars will have an explosive offense, fans may be concerned when looking at the offensive line chemistry and replacing the production in the receiver and tight end groups.
Houston has a fairly manageable schedule this year. They have a realistic chance of making the conference championship game if they can limit their losses and beat either Texas Tech or Utah. With a proven winner at the helm, an explosive offense, and a good infusion of returning talent and newcomers, Houston could be a contender.
5. Arizona
It might seem as if I am underestimating the fifth-ranked team in the Pacific Playbook Sports Talk Big 12 predictions, however, that’s not entirely accurate. When looking at the Wildcats, I believe they have a team that can match up with any team in the conference on any given day. The main issue stems from the tough schedule that they have. I ask myself, “Can they make it through the gauntlet?” I’m not sure if they can.
Arizona does have the luxury of having one of the conference’s best quarterbacks in Noah Fifita and one of the best defensive players in Taye Brown. When a team has someone who has a wealth of experience, talent and leadership, it can pay big dividends down the stretch. These two will need to deliver due to the questions surrounding their running game, receiver group and young secondary. If these three groups can have an immediate impact, Arizona would be a complete football team that can surprise people.
6. Oklahoma State
My No. 6 team in the Big 12, Oklahoma State, starts a new era with Eric Morris taking over as the new head coach. The Cowboys went 1–11 last year; normally, I would be crazy to put faith in a team that did that poorly the year prior, but this team is different. Eric Morris is a great developer of talent, as seen through his resume working with elite quarterbacks who have been successful in college and the NFL. When he took over at North Texas, he helped turn that program around quickly, and I think he can do so at Oklahoma State sooner rather than later.
Morris was able to bring more than 20 players from North Texas with him to Oklahoma State. Ultimately, this should help jumpstart their rebuild, as the players coming with him will understand the culture and scheme that the staff is trying to establish. Three of the biggest newcomers for the Cowboys are Drew Mestemaker, Coleman Hawkins, and Wyatt Young. They all put up huge numbers for North Texas last season. While it might be hard to replicate those numbers, I believe they will have a high-octane offense that can compete with anyone.
I might be a bit bullish on the Cowboys, but the changes around the program are exciting. Stillwater will be rocking once again this year, as there should be more optimism and hope for the kind of season Oklahoma State can have. The schedule has opportunities to build momentum and create chaos at the top of the Big 12.
7. Kansas State
My prediction for the No. 7 ranked team in the Big 12 is Kansas State. The Wildcats brought back beloved former quarterback Collin Klein, who played for the program, to become their new head coach. I believe that Kansas State will experience both positive and negative moments this season. However, if quarterback Avery Johnson and running back Joe Jackson are able to maximize their potential, this team could be scary. Jackson had nearly 1,000 yards rushing last year and 8 touchdowns while Johnson also had 8, meaning it would be smart to put the ball in their hands as much as possible. The defense could hold them back, as they are a relative unknown due to the amount of production lost.
I believe that the Wildcats’ schedule has opportunities to beat the teams ranked ahead of them. If Avery Johnson’s flashes turn into prolonged periods of success, he can help carry them to wins. Seeing his development under Klein will be worth keeping tabs on, as it could affect their success this year. The biggest drawback I have regarding Kansas State is that they have a tendency to lose trap games. If they can avoid the pitfalls set by teams they should beat, I can accept being wrong.
8. TCU
No. 8 on this prediction list is the TCU Horned Frogs. They lost a key player to the transfer portal in Josh Hoover. Luckily, TCU was able to sign Harvard transfer Jaden Craig. He was putting up record-setting numbers while receiving recognition and awards for his play at the FCS level in the Ivy League. Their running game needs to be much improved from a year ago if they have any hope of helping Craig show why he was such a valuable addition for them. I’m concerned about their defense. The defensive line is incredibly strong and will set the tone for their defense. However, the linebackers and secondary are going to need to step up in order for TCU to prove me wrong.
The Horned Frogs start the season in a game across the pond in Dublin, Ireland, against North Carolina, who they crushed last year. If this year starts in a similar fashion, I would not be shocked if they started the year 4–0. TCU fans would hope that this blistering start could last all season, but at some point, the disparity in talent between those at the top of the conference and the middle of the pack will become apparent. Look no further than their games against Utah and Texas Tech in the final two weeks of the season. That is a tough way to end the season.
9. Baylor
No. 9 in my Big 12 predictions is potentially a sleeper team if they can reach their full potential. Much of these hopes rest on the back of transfer DJ Lagway. He came into college with sky-high expectations out of high school and at Florida did not live up to them. This transfer gets him closer to home, a fresh start, and more realistic expectations. If the supporting cast around him develops, he could put up serious numbers in a scheme that likes to spread the ball around. It would not be shocking to see a running back or receiver break out and have some huge games this year. The offense is projecting to be more effective than the defense this year, which is something to watch for.
At the end of the season, Baylor has a tough ride with four of my top five teams in the conference. If they can upset a couple of those teams, it could do wonders for the direction of the program going forward and help them surpass my expectations. The inexperienced defense could be costly in games that turn into shootouts, which seemingly happens every week in the Big 12. There are questions about inexperience on both sides of the ball, limiting some of the hype around this team.
10. UCF
Coming in at No. 10 in the Pacific Playbook Sports Talk Big 12 predictions are the UCF Knights. Second-year head coach Scott Frost is looking to improve on a 5–7 record last year. They made an effort to find pieces that fit with the culture and system they are trying to run. That’s where the James Madison transfer, Alonza Barnett III, comes in. He has experience, led James Madison to a playoff berth, and has the talent to play in any Power Conference in the country. The Knights have plenty of weapons he can get the ball to, but pass protection will be something to watch this year. If they can block and improve throughout the year, they could outperform this ranking.
If they do not protect Barnett, then they will have problems. UCF has a strong secondary and a promising front seven. One of these promising defensive linemen needs to step up to round this defense out. The middle stretch of their schedule is make-or-break. The Knights play Houston and Oklahoma State on the road before playing BYU, Baylor, and Kansas. Their offense will be able to play with most teams in the conference, but their defense will have to prove themselves before I place them any higher.
11. Arizona State
The Arizona State Sun Devils enter my preseason conference ranking at No. 11. They lost players who were major contributors last year, especially on offense. The Sun Devils hit the transfer portal hard and made waves by revamping their receiving group. There are questions about their quarterback, as Mikey Keene was serviceable at previous stops. It will be important for him to have good receivers to throw the ball to, but if the offensive line cannot protect him, it means nothing.
Sun Devil fans should be excited to see their defense wreaking havoc across the field. They brought in Owen Long from Colorado State, who led the FBS in tackles with 151. If you add him to a defense with a strong secondary and front seven, they can cause problems for conference opponents. The Texas A&M game will be telling in how the season will go. In addition, the back half of conference play will be about survival against those at the top. I have a hard time seeing that happen this year.
12. West Virginia
The No. 12 team in the Pacific Playbook Sports Talk Big 12 predictions, West Virginia, aggressively recruited through the transfer portal to fill practically their entire roster. This kind of turnover is hard on the players and coaching staff. It can promote a strong sense of competition but also create even more uncertainty. A positive note for Mountaineer fans is that their offense should be better than last year simply by bringing in Cam Cook, who put up huge numbers last year, along with Jaden Bray.
The biggest question I have about the Mountaineers is about their head coach: will Rich Rodriguez ever find the level of success he had during his first stint in Morgantown? I do not think he will, but this season should give us a better idea of whether he can get the program moving in the right direction. What he did in the past was truly special, but the West Virginia job is not what it used to be, and the current situation would be tough for anyone to fix. The schedule is not kind to the Mountaineers, as they will not have a bye week until Halloween. West Virginia will have to withstand the physical and mental toll that will inevitably happen. If this team can gel with a practically new roster, not only could it lead to more retention in the future, but more wins this season.
13. Cincinnati
Cincinnati had a great deal of turnover on both sides of the ball, which is why they are No. 13 in my predictions list. They lost a ton of production from last year’s team, which opens the door for players to come in and produce immediate results. This will be a tall order for the Bearcats, as there are plenty of unknowns about them, aside from their offensive line. The offensive line is a great building block for any team, and hopefully Cincy can lean on the running game early to build momentum. With Cincinnati having to bring in eight new starters on offense and nine on defense, they will experience plenty of growing pains this season.
The schedule does not do the Bearcats any favors either. They have to face Texas Tech, Utah, Houston, and BYU in a five-week stretch. Cincinnati is in rebuild mode, and having to face the top four teams in this conference ranking is a nightmare. If the schedule was more favorable, the Bearcats would have been higher up on the list, especially with the coach’s record showing consistent improvement. Unfortunately, I do not think that they will see much improvement in their record this year.
14. Iowa State
The Cyclones start the year on the Pacific Playbook Sports Talk predictions at No. 14 because of the significant changes that occurred during the offseason. Matt Campbell, who had become a staple in Ames, left to become the head coach at Penn State. In doing so, he brought many key players with him, such as Rocco Becht, Carson Hansen, and multiple others. This left Iowa State with a new coaching staff needing to fill a majority of their roster with brand-new players. The quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to be the focal point of the offense. If he can do that, it would help the Cyclones’ chances to surprise someone in a trap-game scenario. Unfortunately, I feel that the supporting cast on both sides of the ball helps land them towards the bottom of the conference.
Iowa State has a tough schedule with five of my top seven teams in the conference. This screams a tough road for any team, let alone one going through a rebuild and transition period. In addition, they have to play archrival Iowa, who is ranked No. 22. The Cyclones could not have asked for a worse schedule to usher in the Jimmy Rogers era in Ames.
15. Kansas
The Kansas Jayhawks are a team that I think will struggle this year, which explains their No. 15 ranking in my predictions. Over the last few years, Kansas has had Jalon Daniels under center, making life easier, a luxury they no longer have. Who will replace his experience, presence, and production? They brought in Dylan Edwards, which should help them in the run game, and Nick McMillan to help the new quarterback. Even with their arrivals, it will be a tall task for Kansas’ new quarterback to produce at the same level.
Their defense could be their saving grace, as Trey Lathan looks to match his numbers from last year while leading the defense. The Jayhawks should be able to hold their own defensively, but the questions surrounding the quarterback and supporting pieces make it challenging to envision success for them this year. If you’re a Jayhawks fan, the new stadium will be fun, but the season might not be so much.
16. Colorado
Colorado comes in last in my Big 12 predictions primarily because I cannot trust them. Since the Buffs hired Deion Sanders, they have constantly had unrealistic expectations thrust upon his teams. Only one season since he has been there could be categorized as a good or successful season. The Buffaloes have relied heavily on the transfer portal, which can cause more chemistry issues and a lack of continuity among the team. It’s great to see players who have big names commit to your school, but over the past couple of years, many of these players haven’t panned out as originally thought.
There are questions on both sides of the ball because of all the roster changes. Offensively, they lost proven production and brought in guys who excelled at other schools. The offensive line will be one to watch, as their best lineman last year transferred to LSU during the offseason, leaving a large hole to fill. If Julian Lewis can demonstrate the talent that made him so highly sought after in high school, he would be vital to Colorado’s chances of having a better season than projected. This team has the talent to win some games and prove me wrong; it all comes down to how well they can come together.
