After what feels like an eternity, college football is back, and it is time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. This will be the first of ten preseason conference predictions from Pacific Playbook Sports Talk, and what better place to start than the new-look Pac-12? For two years, the league consisted of only Washington State and Oregon State. Now there are six newcomers looking to assert themselves in their new conference, and over the last two years, some of these teams have become more familiar with each other, creating the potential for new rivalries to form. With eight teams now making up the conference, the question is simple: who will come out on top in the Pac-12’s new era?
1. Boise State
Coming into this season, Boise State is the favorite to win the Pac-12. The Broncos have dominated the Mountain West for years, and since Spencer Danielson took over, nothing has changed. He has coached this squad to three straight conference championships and now looks to bring much of that experience into the new-look Pac-12. Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns to lead the offense, while Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines give Boise State one of the best backfield duos in the conference after combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards last season.
A huge advantage that Boise State has over some teams in the conference is familiarity. Considering their success in the Mountain West and wins against the remnants of the old Pac-12 in recent years should add a great deal of excitement for Bronco fans. The coaching staff has assembled a great group of talent, and the expectations are high in Boise as the Broncos received a conference-high 18 Phil Steele All-Pac-12 selections.
The biggest question mark for the Broncos heading into the season is the secondary after losing important pieces such as Ty Benefield. The Broncos have enough experience and firepower to be the team to beat in the Pac-12 and potentially make a playoff berth if the stars align.
2. Washington State
This might be the biggest shocker on the list, but there is plenty to like about the Cougars heading into the new-look Pac-12. The schedule won’t do them any favors, with games against archrival Washington, Kansas State, and Arizona, but the Cougars return important pieces up front on the offensive line and have experience at running back. That gives them a foundation to lean on while the rest of the roster takes shape.
The biggest reason for me to be optimistic is the direction of the program. New head coach Kirby Moore brings an offensive mindset that was sorely lacking last year and has added intriguing talent through the transfer portal. This helps give Washington State some exciting new players who could be impactful all season long. With the lack of stability over the last couple of years, the new coaching staff has provided a sense of direction as the Cougars prepare for the Pac-12’s new era.
With fall camp finished, the quarterback situation remains something to watch. For WSU to have a successful year, the offensive line and running game need to perform well. Washington State has a nice blend of returning experience and new talent to make my No. 2 prediction look significantly less shocking by the end of the season.
3. San Diego State
San Diego State comes in at No. 3, and one of the biggest reasons is the schedule. The Aztecs play WSU and Boise State toward the end of the season, giving them a chance to build momentum before facing two of the teams we expect to be competing near the top of the conference. Aside from UCLA, their non-conference schedule gives them an opportunity to establish themselves early on.
In today’s college football, the transfer portal can draw anyone in, but the Aztecs are thankful to have running back Lucky Sutton returning for another year. After he rushed for nearly 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, Sutton gives San Diego State a proven playmaker to build around as it enters its first Pac-12 season.
The biggest concern is the defense. San Diego State lost a significant amount of production from an elite defense to the transfer portal and the NFL. Losing the kind of talent that made it one of the nation’s better defenses last season can be tough to replace. If the new players can step in quickly, the Aztecs have a chance to be a contender in the Pac-12. If the defense takes a step back, No. 3 could prove to be a little too high.
4. Texas State
Texas State is one of the biggest unknowns in the new-look Pac-12, and whether or not that works in their favor remains to be seen. The Bobcats haven’t played most of these teams regularly, which means conference opponents may not know exactly what to expect. That uncertainty could give Texas State an opportunity to surprise some teams early in the season.
The biggest reason I have the Bobcats this high is their quarterback, Brad Jackson. Jackson was underrated last year, but now he’s coming in as a quarterback to watch this year. He can change a game through the air or on the ground, and he has plenty of weapons around him. Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr., who both had more than 900 receiving yards in 2025, return to give Jackson an explosive receiving corps.
The question marks start to come when talking about their defense. Texas State will need new players to quickly acclimate to their new roles and produce. The Bobcats have talent, but much of the defensive unit is inexperienced. If the defense can hold its own, Texas State’s explosive offense gives the Bobcats a legitimate chance to surprise people and finish in the upper half of the conference.
5. Fresno State
Fresno State lands at No. 5 in our preseason rankings. Replacing E.J. Warner will be tough, but if the new man under center can produce, the Bulldogs have the talent to be higher in the standings by season’s end. Fortunately, they should have a solid running game to take some pressure off the position, led by Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke.
Fresno State also has a proven target in Josiah Freeman, who is coming off a career-best season. Having a receiver like Freeman gives the new quarterback a reliable option in the passing game. Defensively, the Bulldogs have talent returning, including cornerback Simeon Harris, who had five interceptions last season. The team returns 14 starters overall.
The question for Fresno State is whether enough players can step up on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs have the pieces to compete, but they will need their key returning players to meet expectations and the new faces to step up.
6. Colorado State
Colorado State comes in at No. 6, largely because there are simply too many questions surrounding the Rams heading into the new-look Pac-12. The biggest change is on the sideline, with Jim Mora taking over as head coach after Colorado State went 2–10 last season. Mora has had many successful coaching stints in his career, but Year 1 in a new conference is still a major challenge.
The Rams also don’t have a ton of returning production to lean on. This makes the transition for the Rams even more difficult. Defensively, it will be strange seeing Colorado State without Owen Long flying around the field. Long led the FBS with 151 tackles last season before transferring to Arizona State, leaving a massive hole for the Rams to fill.
Colorado State might surprise someone this year, especially with Mora now running the program, but history and the lack of returning production make it difficult to put the Rams any higher. For Colorado State to climb these rankings, several new players will have to make an immediate impact.
7. Oregon State
Oregon State comes in at No. 7, but there is plenty of reason to be excited about the direction of the program. New head coach JaMarcus Shephard has a tough rebuilding job ahead of him, but the coaching change also gives the Beavers a fresh start to establish a new identity as they enter the new-look Pac-12.
The problem is that there are simply too many questions to put Oregon State much higher. The Beavers lost their star running back, and there are still questions regarding how the Mercer transfer fares. On defense, Aiden Sullivan gives the team an experienced piece to build around, but much of the production from last year’s unit is gone.
Then there is the receiving corps. With so much change on the roster, who will emerge as the reliable go-to target? Oregon State could surprise us if several new players quickly establish themselves, but until that happens, there are too many unknowns to move the Beavers higher than No. 7.
8. Utah State
Utah State comes in at No. 8, and with the pieces they lost, it could be a rough season. It could be different depending on how the return of quarterback McCae Hillstead goes. Hillstead had mixed results during his freshman season at Utah State before transferring to BYU, where he played sparingly. Now back in Logan, there is still plenty to prove. If Hillstead’s return goes well, Utah State could surprise people in the new-look Pac-12. If it goes poorly, the Aggies’ hopes of contending are slim.
The bigger concern is the lack of returning production. Utah State has plenty of new pieces that will need to step up immediately, particularly at wide receiver. That makes the Aggies difficult to project heading into their first Pac-12 season. There is certainly a path for Utah State to outperform my No. 8 prediction, but until we see how Hillstead and the new pieces come together, there are simply too many reasons not to put the Aggies any higher.
